Catalina Foothills Market Trends
                    John Schneider Realtor® |Tierra Antigua Realty | Tucson, Arizona 

                      520 271-4164 | johnschneiders@gmail.com | TheFoothillsToday.com | Catalina-Foothills- Homes.com
             _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

No Spin. Just the Foothills Market, decoded

We are now in late Feb 2026, prime time for Catalina Foothills home sales.  And with more homes sitting on the market longer and no more bidding wars, home prices are almost always negotiable. It is finally a normal Foothills market — albeit one operating within the limited boundaries of an area that is both very popular and is essentially built-out. 

           ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

+ TheFoothillsToday /As of Feb 24, 2026

192 For Sale:    $1,050,000 MLP / 50 MDOM 

77 in contract: $850,000 MLP / 47 MDOM 

54 Sold (30d):  $817,250 MSP / 57 MDOM

The Takeaway: The price gap between homes for sale and homes sold is back up to $232,750, from $161,500 just 2 weeks ago and almost back up to where it was in early January at $245,000 - An awfully big gap between what sellers are asking and what they're getting. 
                                                   __________________________________________________________________

On the other hand, thru thick and thin Foothills Median Sold Prices have risen every year since 2019 – some years a little, some years a lot – along the way accumulating a 67+% median price increase since 2019, despite a 33% decline in sales volume from 2021–2025.

+Yearly MSP         • #Sold • MDOM  / Click for Chart
2025  • $830,000    643      32
2024  • $810,000    640     
19
2023  • $779,250   596     12
2022  • $770,000   • 716     •  7
2021  • $695,000   962     
•  6
2020  • $567,050   930     15
2019  • $495,000    876     32

The Catalina Foothills is by far the most desirable area in the Tucson Metro — everyone wants to be here — but with the Foothills essentially built-out, Mother Nature has officially closed the books on new development.                                                                                                                                            ___________________________________________________________________

 + Jan 1 - Feb 28 Sales Snapshot:

  • 2025:  89 homes Sold | $825,500 MSP | 21 MDOM

  • 2026: 102 homes Sold |$834,750 MSP | 39 MDOM

So far this year home sales are up 14% over last year l MSP is up 1.1% l MDOM is up-up 85%
The MDOM numbers show that buyers are taking their time to shop and compare options—but once they decide, they are closing in higher numbers and spending a bit more than last year.

                                                      _________________________________________________________________________

  +  Easily search all the Foothills homes listed for sale – from all Realtors® and Brokerages     

  •  Just Listed last 7 days

  •  Search all Foothills Homes by Price Range - with one Click

  •  Search Foothills Homes by Subdivision - with one Click

  •  Custom Search
                                                       _________________________________________________________________________

+ The Market Snapshot breaks down the Catalina Foothills Single Family Home market into 5 price ranges - showing the # of homes For Sale, In Contract, and Sold (last 30 days), along with the resulting Months of Inventory. (MOI) is a key metric for gauging market balance.
5 – 6 MOI = Balanced Mkt // < 5 MOI = leans to Seller’s Mkt // > 6 MOI = leans to Buyer’s Mkt

As of Feb 19, 2026
In early January, I noted that the Catalina Foothills market was shifting from a strong Seller’s Market toward what looked to be a Buyer's Market in the making. I suggested the following weeks would clarify whether it was a long-term trend or a temporary holiday backlog. As of today’s updated Mkt Snapshot, the answer is: the backlog was indeed temporary for homes priced under $1.5M. However, for homes priced above $1.5M, the narrative remains unchanged—it is still very much a Buyer’s Market at >$1.5

List Price # For Sale # in Contract # Sold Moi
$1 - $500,000 10 6 9 1
$500,001 - $1,000,000 82 48 28 3
$1,000,001 - $1,500,000 38 15 14 -3
$1,500,001 - $2,000,000 21 2 1 21
$2,000,000 - UP 39 7 4 10
Total Market 190 78 56 3+

Q4 #Sold Median Sold Price MDOM
2024 161 $760,000 22
2025 154 $852,500 32
+/- % - 4.3% + 12% +45%

Closing out the year the  Q4 numbers reflect a positive end to a good year for Foothills real estate and offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2026. 
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

+ In the News: 

Catalina Foothills School District in the News

Yahoo!life article: The Catalina Foothills
                                                    ________________________________________________________________

US Pending-Home Sales Plunge by Most Since Start of Pandemic (1)

Jan. 21, 2026, 8:36 AM MST

Julia Fanzeres / Bloomberg News

Pending sales of US existing homes fell in December by the most since April 2020, an unusually large drop after the housing market appeared to be gaining some momentum.

An index of contract signings decreased 9.3% to 71.8 last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. The decline was regionally broad and well below the lowest estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The drop was largest for any December in data back to 2001. Page 2 for Chart
                                                    ____________________________________________________________________

The Winter 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Luxury Housing Market Ranking

Realtor.com defines the "luxury market" as the top 10% of listings — AKA as the 90th percentile threshold. Looking across the country, that starting point varies wildly:

 > Nationally, the starting point for luxury, defined as the top 10% of listings, sits near $1.19 million / In Detroit its below $700,000 /
In St. Louis it sits near $628,000 / In San Diego its just under $2.91 million / In Salt Lake City it's just under $1.2 and,
Drumroll please - Currently, in the Catalina Foothills it is $3,250,000. Yes, you read that correctly: $3,250,000. I ran the numbers and checked them twice. 

The cliche of the "million-dollar home" was once our cultural shorthand and benchmark for luxury, but in today’s market it falls far short of defining the Foothills luxury market. At the same time, relying strictly on the top 10% — currently a $3.25M threshold is just too restrictive. It would exclude many exceptional Foothills properties that both the public and the real estate community alike would undeniably classify as luxury. So, what's the answer?  

Frankly, I believe the answer is that luxury is individual and personal, much like the old proverb about 'treasure' being in the eye of the beholder. It is a reflection of individual perspectives, lifestyle needs, and personal taste—qualities that simply cannot be constrained by a rigid dollar amount.

(Note: While the Catalina Foothills is not on the official Realtor.com list, I have applied their specific 90th-percentile methodology to our local market data for this comparison. List price is one of many factors Realtor.com considers in determining which cities make their list.) 
Data Courtesy of Realtor.com / Wall Street Journal

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Catalina Foothills is an established, peaceful area, an area of character and charm, where the lush beauty of the Sonoran desert and the majesty of the Catalina Mountains frame your daily existence. And together with the native Southwestern people and culture, and the influence of the University of Arizona, Foothills residents, who come from all across the U.S. and many other countries, contribute to make this desert community a lively and cosmopolitan place.

See About the Catalina Foothills & Wikipedia for the history and development of the Catalina Foothills.
If you are interested in The Old Foothills, Catalina Foothills Estates 1 – 9, visit the Catalina Foothills Association – an essential resource for residents and newcomers alike.

The market goes up, the market goes down and thru it all the Catalina Foothills remains an established and highly desirable area that continues to support premium home price appreciation.

Best Wishes,
Enjoy your stay in the Catalina Foothills, 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
TheFoothillsToday.com
Catalina-Foothills-Homes.com
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164